Oregon State Football Opponent Preview: Air Force

With the start of the 2024 season just around the corner, BeaversEdge kicks off the first in an opponent preview series diving into all 12 of Oregon State's opponents in 2024...

Next up on the schedule is a road matchup against the Air Force Falcons...

THE GAME

Date: Saturday, November 16th

Time: 12:30 p.m. PT

Location: Falcon Stadium - Colorado Springs, CO

TV: CBS Sports Network

Oregon State 2023 record: 8-5 (5-4 Pac-12)

Air Force 2023 record: 9-4 (5-3 Mountain West)

Air Force Head Coach: Troy Calhoun (18th season, 130-82)

Air Force 2023 Recap

The 2023 campaign for the Air Force Falcons was a continuation of strong play we've come to expect under Troy Calhoun. The McMinnville (OR) native is one of the longest-tenured coaches in college football, as he just completed his 17th season at the helm.

After going 10-3 (5-3 MW) in 2022, the Falcons returned a ton of senior leadership and playmaking, riding that to a 9-4 record with a 5-3 mark in MW play. The conference title game that has mostly eluded the Falcons during their successful seasons was out of reach as they needed to finish with two conference losses or better.

The Falcons took advantage of a soft schedule to open the season, firing on all cylinders en route to an eight-game win streak that saw them start 8-0. They reached as high as No. 17 in the polls following the eight-game stretch.

Over that run, they defeated Robert Morris, Sam Houston State, Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State, Wyoming, Navy, and Colorado State. The Cowboys were the only team in that stretch that ended with a winning record, but stacking up eight straight wins isn't easy.

The Falcons returned to earth in the final stretch, dropping games to Army, Hawaii, UNLV, and Boise State. UNLV and Boise were MW contenders, and they played them tough, but Army and Hawaii were not good last season, and that ultimately kept them out of a chance for a special season in Colorado Springs.

The veteran leadership and playmaking was a huge reason for the Falcons' success. They had an efficient dual-threat QB in Zach Larrier and an extremely deep running back room that featured Emmanuel Michel (950 yards, 11 TD), John Lee Eldridge III (599, 6 TD), Owen Burk (439, 3 TD) and two other rushers (more them in 2024 preview) who tallied 600 yards and four scores between them.

Defensively, the Falcons were extremely effective, ranking first in the Mountain West and eighth nationally in yards per game allowed at 277 per contest. That effective defense kept them in a lot of games as their high-water mark in points allowed was just 31.

Best Win: vs James Madison (31-21)

Worst Loss: vs Hawaii (27-13)

2023 Schedule

Air Force 2024 Outlook

If there's a program that prides itself on consistency, it's the Air Force Falcons under Calhoun...

Excluding the 2020 COVID season, the Falcons were 40-12 in their last four seasons, and that speaks to Calhoun's leadership and that of a dynamic senior class that helped establish that standard.

However, the graduation losses were significant for the Falcons who will be replacing their quarterback, their top three running backs, and all five offensive starting linemen. They return their receiving corps, but also need to find new answers at TE.

A run-based offense, new QB Josh Busha will be handing off to 2023 fourth and fifth stringers Dylan Carson and Aiden Calvert. Carson tallied 493 yards and two scores a season ago, while Calvert had nearly 300. He'll have Jared Roznos out wide, and he's a big-play target, averaging over 20 yards per catch in 2023...

Defensively, the Falcons saw eight starters depart from a unit that led the Mountain West in scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 points per contest. They were also best in the MW against the run at 96.3 yards per game allowed and were also best against the pass, allowing just 181 yards per game.

Most of the returning experience is in the secondary with DBs Jamari Bellamy and Jerome Gaillard Jr. as the front seven is going to be working in some new faces. The Falcons may have a solid front seven together by the time they face OSU, but early on the front seven won't be as strong as recent seasons.

All that said, this is likely going to be a transition year for the Falcons. Calhoun has proven capable of building a consistent winner in Colorado Springs, but no team (in the MW) can lose what they lost in the offseason and still be at the same level the following season.

The Falcons will likely be getting better as the season progresses as the young faces on offense and defense settle in, but it won't be quite as strong of seasons as we saw from Air Force the past four years.

Season Projection: 7-5 or 6-6

Key Players: QB John Busha, RB Dylan Carson, RB Aiden Calvert, WR Jared Roznos, DB Jamari Bellamy, DB Jerome Gaillard Jr.

Early Prediction

A late-November game in Colorado has the potential to be a very tough matchup, as the weather will likely be a factor, and the Falcons always seem to have a very competitive squad under Calhoun.

Air Force's bread and butter is running the ball, and Bray's defenses have been solid at containing the run over the years, so I'm leaning toward giving OSU the slightest of advantages early on.

We'll see how they fare in the early part of the season, but as we stand ahead of the opener, we feel good about Oregon State's ability to slow down opposing run games.

The Falcons' offseason losses are greater than OSU's in my opinion and I see the Beavers squeaking by the Falcons for a four-point road victory...

PREDICTION - Oregon State 28, Air Force 24