Oregon State Football Opponent Preview: Colorado State

With the start of the 2024 season just around the corner, BeaversEdge kicks off the first in an opponent preview series diving into all 12 of Oregon State's opponents in 2024...

Next up on the schedule is a home matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers...

THE GAME

Date: Saturday, October 5tn

Time: 3:30 p.m.

Location: Reser Stadium - Corvallis, Ore.

TV: The CW

Oregon State 2023 record: 8-5 (5-4 Pac-12)

Colorado State 2023 record: 5-7 (3-5 Mountain West)

CSU Head Coach: Jay Norvell (3rd season, 8-16, 6-10 MW - 41-42 overall)

Colorado State 2023 Recap

After going 3-9 (3-5 MW) in Jay Norvell's inaugural season in Fort Collins, the Rams took a step forward in 2023, going 5-7 (3-5) and being just on the cusp of bowl eligibility.

A program that went to five straight bowl games from 2013-17, the Rams fell on tough times at the end of the Mike Bobo era and were worse under his successor Steve Addazzio, who lasted just two seasons from 2020-21.

Norvell's five wins in '23 were the most since '17, so the progress has been noticeable in two seasons at the helm.

CSU opened the '23 campaign with a big home loss to Washington State, before falling in a double-overtime thriller against Colorado a couple of weeks later. They bounced back with two-straight wins against Middle Tennessee and Utah Tech before falling to Utah State.

Their best win of the season came the following week, taking down Boise State by one at home. They however then went on a three-game skid, falling to UNLV, Air Force, and Wyoming.

The Rams bounced back once again for wins over San Diego State and Nevada, and appeared to be in good shape to reach the six-win plateau, but faltered in the final game of the season at Hawaii, falling by three.

While the Rams were more competitive than year one of the Norvell era, consistency was a big issue. The Boise State win was impressive as it was the only team they beat with a winning record, but that is just it. The Rams beat who they were supposed to beat, and lost to who they were expected to except Colorado and Hawaii, which were very winnable games against teams with losing records.

In terms of the good, CSU's passing attack led by freshman quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi was the best in the Mountain West (3,460) and ninth in the country. However, the reason for the lack of success correlated is his TD-INT ratio of 22-to-16. 16 interceptions is an ugly number and he was tied for the second-most in the country.

Most of those yards went to star wideout Tory Holton, who is coming off back-to-back 1,000 campaigns, including 1,136 yards and eight touchdowns on 96 catches.

CSU's defense was still largely a work in progress in '23, albeit an improvement from Norvell's first campaign. Their problem was allowing a ton of yards, as opponents racked up 415 yards per contest (11th in MW).

They were a bit better at limiting those yards to points as they allowed 30 per game (eighth in MW), but those numbers won't win you a ton of games without an elite offense, which they didn't have.

Best Win: vs Boise State 31-30

Worst Loss: @ Hawaii 27-24

2023 Schedule

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CSU 2024 Outlook

After flirting with bowl eligibility in the second year of the Norvell era, the Rams figure to be a bit better in 2024 and should be right around the six-win mark.

If Fowler-Nicolosi can improve upon his interceptions from a season ago, the Rams could be a problem for most defenses with his rapport with Horton. As we mentioned above, Horton is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard plus seasons with 16 touchdowns, and he'll be a tough matchup for any defense week in and week out.

RB Justin Marshall will anchor the Rams' ground game, and they'll be looking to build on having the second-worst rushing attack in the MW at just 92.8 yards per game. They'll have the benefit of several offensive linemen returning, but that number has to improve for success.

Defensively, the strength figures to be in the secondary where the Rams return several experienced DBs and grabbed a pair of potential starters from the transfer portal. Jack Howell (114 tackles, 1 INT) and Henry Blackburn (75 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 INT) are the de-facto leaders in the back end after finishing in the top five in team tackles.

The linebacking core led by Chase Wilson will be a strength, as he tallied the second-most tackles in '23 (107) and had 8.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.

The defensive line will be the biggest question mark, as they lost leading sack-man Mohamed Kamara to the NFL Draft after tallying 13.5 QB takedowns and 17.5 tackles for loss. Who helps replace that production is still a bit of a question mark, but they'll need to be better against the run (166 yards per game in '23) in 2024.

Outside of what will be an ugly loss at the hands of the Texas Longhorns in Austin, the schedule shakes out pretty well.

Northern Colorado is coming off a winless campaign, Colorado is well Colorado and I'd bet the Rams have that game circled after all the drama from a season ago. Sure probably still favors the Buffs, but a winnable game. UTEP is also a very winnable matchup following a 3-9 campaign, so the Rams may be 2-2 entering the matchup with OSU, potentially 3-1.

The next three for the Rams are a tough stretch, playing an OSU team on the road, before facing San Jose State at home and Air Force on the road. The Beavers are the toughest team in that stretch, but SJSU and Air Force had good seasons a year ago.

New Mexico and Nevada should be wins, seeing up an interesting final stretch that features Wyoming, Fresno State, and Utah State.

They lost to USU and Wyoming a year ago but didn't play FSU. How they fare in that final stretch will determine whether or not they go bowling...

Season Projection: 6-6

Key Players: QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, WR Tory Horton, RB Justin Marshall, DB Jack Howell, DB Henry Blackburn, LB Chase Wilson

Early Prediction

Both teams coming off their first bye weeks of the season, this figures to be a solid matchup in Corvallis.

That being said, this will be a game the Beavers are favored in, and a game they should win if they play up to their capabilities.

Colorado State is better than Idaho State and should be better than SDSU, but the Beavers will be well-prepared for this matchup having played two of their toughest games in the previous three weeks.

While the bye will prove beneficial for both teams, I think it favors the Beavers more coming off games against Oregon and Purdue, compared to Colorado and UTEP for the Rams.

If this game was in Fort Collins, this matchup would give me some sneaky trap vibes, as who can forget the Beavers' last trip to CSU, but considering it's in Corvallis, I like the Beavers' chances to come out on top against what will be a competitive Ram squad.

I think this game will be closer than expected as the Rams give the Beavers a tough game, but OSU's defensive strength in '24 will be the secondary and that should give them an advantage over CSU and their pass-happy attack.

The Beavers may not be able to score at will, as the Rams have some veteran and experienced defensive pieces, but they should be able to generate enough of an offensive output to win the game by a pair of scores.

PREDICTION - Oregon State 28, Colorado State 17

Previously

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