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With the start of the 2024 season just around the corner, BeaversEdge kicks off the first in an opponent preview series diving into all 12 of Oregon State's opponents in 2024...
Next up is the rivalry game with Oregon, which is the Beavers' third game of the season...
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THE GAME
Date: Saturday, September 14th
Time: 12:30 p.m.
Location: Reser Stadium - Corvallis, Ore.
TV: FOX
Oregon State 2023 record: 8-5 (5-4 Pac-12)
Oregon 2023 record: 12-2 (8-2)
Oregon Head Coach: Dan Lanning (22-5)
Oregon 2023 Recap
After going 10-3 (7-2 Pac-12) and missing out on a Pac-12 Championship game appearance in year one under Dan Lanning, the Ducks put the throttle down in 2024, going 12-2 overall (8-2) and reaching the conference title game.
If there was a kryptonite for Lanning and the Ducks last season, it was Kalen DeBoer, Michael Penix, and the Washington Huskies, who bested them by just three points in both the regular season and title game matchups.
Outside of those narrow losses to UW, Oregon's closest scare came via nonconference play when they overcame a second-half deficit to sneak past the Red Raiders in Lubbock.
Once Pac-12 play got underway, it was a series of big wins for Oregon, who cruised past Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, Utah, Cal, USC, Arizona State, and Oregon State before the P12 title loss to UW.
Quarterback Bo Nix was a Heisman Finalist throughout the season and led an efficient Oregon offensive attack, while the defense took a big step forward compared to Lanning's inaugural season and was capable of locking down opponents' offensive attack.
For perspective, the "closest" game in that stretch was USC, which they beat by 11, and even in that game, Oregon had a 1-2 score advantage for nearly all of it. There wasn't really a conference team outside of Washington that gave the Ducks a scare, which speaks to how well they played last season.
Washington State also came close, trailing Oregon by just three at Autzen at the half the week after the first UW loss. However, the Ducks pulled away in the second half and WSU was in the midst of what would be a six-game losing streak.
Despite getting an invite to the Fiesta Bowl and crushing Liberty (45-6), it was a year of what-ifs for Oregon as they came up just short against Washington twice by just three points, and that UW team went on to the national championship.
Best Win: vs Utah (35-6)
Worst Loss: vs Washington P12 Championship (34-31)
Oregon 2024 Outlook
Arguably one of the top teams of the offseason, Oregon went out and hit the transfer portal hard in the offseason, landing big fish such as Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel to replace Nix, Texas A&M wide receiver Evan Stewart to replace Troy Franklin, and Washington DB Jabbar Muhammad to replace Khyree Jackson in addition to numerous others.
Oregon certainly took full advantage of the new college football NIL world, building arguably the best UO team on paper I've seen. Now on paper is just that, but when you look at Oregon's talent and preseason ranking, the expectation nationally is that Oregon will be one of the best in the country.
Now, this will be their first year playing in the BIG10 conference, and have a few tough games on the schedule, but Oregon is still expected to be right there competing for the BIG10 Championship.
In nonconference, OSU is Oregon's "toughest game" and Lanning and Co. lost in Corvallis the last go around, but likely not a game the Ducks are fretting at this point.
Ohio State at Autzen Stadium will be the toughest of the year, but they get them at home. Michigan and Wisconsin are the "toughest" road games, but Michigan won't be at the level they were last season, and Wisconsin is a bit of a wild card.
The Ducks close out the season with Washington, who they are 0-3 against in the last three meetings, but without DeBoer and Penix, I just don't see Jedd Fisch and Co. being able to get them for a fourth straight time. If there's one non-ranked revenge game the Ducks have circled, it's UW...
I expect Oregon to drop a game or two somewhere, but with the expanded 12-team playoff, I expect them to be a playoff team and potentially be in the BIG 10 title game as well. Ohio State was picked to win the conference with the Ducks No. 2, so those two teams will likely duke it out for the BIG10 title.
Barring massive injuries or something else unforeseen, Oregon will likely be one of the top teams in the country and easily the toughest game on Oregon State's schedule.
Season Projection: 11-1
Key Players: QB Dillon Gabriel, WR Tez Johnson, WR Evan Stewart, LB Jeffrey Bassa, DT Jordan Burch, DB Jabbar Muhammad
Early Prediction
Anything can happen in rivalry games, so throw out all the records and whatnot, but this is easily Oregon State's toughest game of the season and one they'd have to play perfectly and have several things break their way to come out on top.
That's not to say that it's an impossible task, as the Beavers beat the Ducks at Reser Stadium in 2022, but I think this will be a massive challenge for the Beavers to overcome, even being at home.
Additionally, the timing of this game is making it even harder to peg. We've seen Oregon and Oregon State end their regular seasons with each other for how long, and now that game will be the third of the season.
It will certainly be a little weird seeing those two teams going at it with likely sunny skies and potentially temps in the 70s, but it's the new reality if the two teams want to continue to play when in different contests.
The Ducks are currently 20.5-point favorites in this matchup, and I expect the final result to end up being pretty close to that number. I think we'll see the Beavers be within striking distance of Oregon for perhaps the first half of the game, with the Ducks pulling away in the second half.
PREDICTION - Oregon 41, Oregon State 24
Previously
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