Corvallis Super Regional Staff Picks: Florida State vs Oregon State

With the Oregon State baseball team (45-13-1) set to host Florida State(41-14) in a best-of-three Super Regional in Corvallis starting Friday afternoon, BeaversEdge gives their picks for the weekend series!

Ryan Harlan's Pick - Oregon State In 3

Oregon State takes on the Florida State Seminoles in the Corvallis Super Regional in arguably one of the closest matchups that could go in a multitude of ways for either team.

First off this could be a series where this goes to three games like 2022 or a sweep by either team when looking at it from a number’s perspective. However, while this is a talented Florida State team there are factors that are working against the Seminoles this weekend.

The biggest things are travel and the time zone change for the Seminoles having to travel over 3,000 miles to get to Corvallis. Florida State also may not be staying in Corvallis either so factor that part of the trip into just playing at Goss Stadium at Coleman Field, also being three hours behind their normal time in Tallahassee.

Now Florida State won’t be too bothered by that on Friday, but where it comes into play is Saturday’s game and if they have adjusted to the change since their last road trip against Cal, where the Seminoles took two of three to win the series.

In addition to the possible time zone and travel fatigue, what also goes against the Seminoles is the climate and how the ball plays at Goss Stadium compared to their home turf in Tallahassee. Oregon State is used to all of it and that’s why playing in front of their home crowd is such a big advantage in the post-season in a Super Regional and Regional format.

Those are factors that will play a role in this game, but by how much remains to be seen and then again when Auburn came here in 2022, that didn’t matter too much.

Really where this comes down to me for the Beavers to win is carrying over your energy of playing loose and jumping out to early leads with momentum early in the ball game plus who you throw out on the mound.

We know what the Beavers are capable of when it comes to playing loose and when they don’t play loose, I’ve hammered that a lot this week and this past weekend. If you’re in Oregon State’s camp you must just play mistake free baseball and not overthink too much about what your goal is for this series.

Pitching I think has me intrigued on how Mitch Canham and Rich Dorman want to approach attacking Florida State on the mound. Eric Segura pitched both Friday and Monday but may not be available for game one against the Seminoles so that leaves moving up Dax Whitney and Ethan Kleinschmit up by a day if they don’t go with Segura.

Canham seemed a bit giddy about who it might be for game one and may not get that by game one. However, regardless of Whitney or Kleinschmit, I think Dorman and Canham will have a guy ready to go by then.

Ultimately, whoever goes out there will have to elevate their game even more than they did in the Corvallis Regional against a talented Seminoles squad that will be very prepared to play for a trip to Omaha on the line. Give me the Beavers in three games since that seems to be the safe bet than a two-game sweep by either team.

Brogan Slaughter's Pick - Oregon State In 3

The Oregon State vs. Florida State Super Regional is shaping up to be one of the most competitive matchups of the 2025 NCAA Baseball Tournament. It is one of only three super regionals to feature multiple national seeds.

Being ranked 8th and 9th, respectively, in my opinion, it’s the closest matchup of talent we’ll see in the Supers.

Florida State enters with a powerful lineup led by star shortstop Alex Lodise, boasting a .405 average and 17 home runs, along with being a Golden Spikes finalist. Florida State also has three dominant LHP that we’ll see throughout the weekend, including top draft prospect Jamie Arnold, expected to pitch Friday.

The Beavers counter with one of the nation's most balanced rosters, headlined by red hot Trent Caraway and Brooks Wallace award finalist Aiva Arquette. FSU’s explosive offense gives them a slight edge on paper, but OSU’s depth, both at the plate and pitching, along with continued home-field advantage at Goss Stadium, make them a tough out.

I don’t see a way this series doesn’t go to the third game on Sunday. Expect a close, possibly three-game series to follow, and I have Oregon State narrowly advancing to the Omaha 8.

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Brenden Slaughter's Pick - Oregon State In 3

Well, folks, it's finally here...

Oregon State vs Florida State, at Goss Stadium, in a best-of-three series with a shot at Omaha on the line... Does it get any better than this?

Oregon State's entire season as an independent and fighting their way to the final national seed has all led to a moment like this, hosting the Super Regionals at Goss Stadium against a top-tier opponent.

On paper, these teams are about as evenly matched as it gets, but I'm going to give the advantage to the Beavers as I think their more battle-tested regional weekend combined with a homefield advantage gives them a narrow edge.

I think the series is likely to go three games, barring something unforeseen, as I do expect both of these teams to leave everything on the line for a shot at Omaha. For Florida State, the chance to go back-to-back to the CWS, and for the Beavers, getting back for the first time since the 2018 title.

With Oregon State likely to roll with Dax Whitney on Friday opposite of FSU's Joey Vollini on Friday afternoon, we could likely see a pitchers duel of sorts for as long as those two are in rhythm and dueling... Both have really high K numbers and could limit the offense in the opener.

On Saturday, expect the Beavers to roll with Ethan Kleinschmit opposite of FSU ace Jamie Arnold, who is expected to be a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft. That matchup should also be quite intriguing as Kleinschmit will be going against one of the best in the country.

Sunday is a bit more of a question, but the Beavers could go with Eric Segura, Wyatt Queen, or James DeCremer, all three decent options considering the latter two had a solid weekend, and the former was able to get back into a groove in the win over USC.

Florida State, meanwhile, will likely counter with Wes Mendes, their usual Sunday starter if necessary in a game three.

While I do expect this to be a nip-and-tuck series, I'm going to go with the Beavers because of how hot their offense was in the Corvallis Regional. We know what Aiva Arquette, Gavin Turley, and Wilson Weber can do, but getting that top-to-bottom production with guys like Trent Caraway, who's as hot as anyone in the country right now, AJ Singer, Canon Reeder, Tyce Peterson, Jacob Krieg, and Easton Talt is huge and balances out the whole lineup...

It's going to be a dandy of a series at Goss Stadium this weekend, but with the Beavers looking to make a statement and reach Omaha, recalling the pain of Lexington a year ago or Auburn in this same spot several years prior, I'm hedging that they get the job done...

Gimme the Beavers in three...

Dylan Callaghan-Croley's Pick - Oregon State in 2

I'm going to be the contrarian here and go Oregon State in two.

Generally, I don't think there are many teams as complete as this Oregon State team left in the tournament. The Beavers are able to get it done both on the mound and at the plate, effectively and efficiently. It makes them so hard to beat, because even if one is having a rough day, the other side is often here to pick them up.

Now, this Florida State team is dangerous itself. Alex Lodise is an incredible player, and players such as Max Williams, Myles Bailey, and Drew Faurot are all pretty good players in their own right. This is a team built to outslug anyone, and they've done a great job of doing that this season. Their starting pitching is solid at the top as well, but the Beavers' depth at pitching is what makes or breaks this regional, in my opinion.

In terms of a potential game three starter and more so, the bullpen, I trust the Beavers a lot more. Florida State can get wild once you get into their bullpen, so being patient will be important late in these matchups. That's not to say the Beavers haven't had their wildness at times, but I will believe in their bullpen a little bit more heading into the weekend.

The Beavers get the job done this weekend and we'll see them in Omaha.

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