11/18/2022 football Edit

BeaversEdge Staff Predictions: Oregon State vs Arizona State

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Every Friday of each game week, the BeaversEdge.com staff will give its predictions for Oregon State's matchup.

With the 23rd-ranked Beavers (7-3 4-3 Pac-12) set to face Arizona State (3-7, 2-5) on Saturday, BeaversEdge Publisher Brenden Slaughter, recruiting analyst Dylan Callaghan-Croley, and writer T.J. Mathewson give their two cents on the matchup and who's going to come out on top!

BRENDEN SLAUGHTER'S PICK

PREDICTION: Oregon State 34, Arizona State 21

Following Oregon State's dominant 38-10 victory over California at Reser Stadium a week ago, the 23rd-ranked Beavers will be looking to continue their momentum for the final regular-season road matchup of the season against Arizona State...

Despite OSU only sporting one win in Tempe in the last 53 years (2009), I like the Beavers' chances to make it two in 53 years on Saturday...

In terms of ASU, it's fair to wonder what exactly the Sun Devils' motivation is in this matchup... They're not going to a bowl game, have two regular season games remaining, and are almost certainly going to have a new staff in short order following the end of the season.

All that being said, the spread for this matchup has the Beavers pegged as an eight-point favorite and I think that's extremely fair given OSU's home/road splits this season. However, this appears to be a very winnable road game and I believe we're going to see the Beavers have their best overall road performance this season...

Starting on offense, Oregon State is going to need to have a big day on the ground as the Sun Devils rank ninth in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game at 176.2 per contest. Damien Martinez should be in prime position to feast in this matchup and with Deshaun Fenwick & Jam Griffin questionable, he could see a ton of carries...

Building off the ground game, the Beavers are going to need Ben Gulbranson to make some plays in the passing game. He's proven capable of hitting those passes in the friendly confines of Reser, but away from Corvallis has been mixed results. He needs to have one of his better passing days and the opportunity is there with ASU ranking near the middle of the Pac in passing yards allowed.

Defensively, the Beavers are going to have to keep tabs on ASU's skill position players while not letting the offense as a whole gain traction. This really seems like a matchup where if OSU can stymie ASU early, their confidence will wane... If the defense can get ASU off the field early on their first 2-3 drives, the Beavers will be in terrific shape...

I see Oregon State winning this matchup by 13 and playing one of their more complete road games of the Jonathan Smith era, setting up a ton of momentum entering the Oregon matchup next week...

Brenden's season record (8-2)

- Brenden Slaughter

DYLAN CALLAGHAN-CROLEY'S PICK

PREDICTION: Oregon State 38, Arizona State 21

Coming off a major victory last week, this does feel like a major trap game for Oregon State. The Sun Devils at 3-7 have gone through a tumultuous last two years and at this point have little to play for if we're being honest. That at the same time, could be the biggest asset for the Sun Devils. With a bowl bid unlikely this season and a season that can only be described as disappointing, despite outside expectations, the Sun Devils could very well be looking toward the offseason at this point.

Over the last two weeks, the Sun Devils faced two teams similar to the Beavers in UCLA and Washington State. Both teams came away with double-digit victories including a 50-36 win for UCLA. The Cougars, on the other hand, got off to a 28-0 lead in the first half before taking it easy in a second half that saw the Sun Devils score 18 unanswered to make the final score a bit closer than the game actually was.

For beginners and by my final score prediction, you can tell I like the Beavers and I like them to cover this 8-point spread.

While the Sun Devils' offense is solid, scoring 27.1 points per game and totaling 383 yards per contest, they'll likely be forced into a one-dimensional offense against the Beavers. The Sun Devils don't run the ball all that well, averaging just 130 rushing yards per game, which ranks 7th in the Pac-12. Senior Xazavian Valladay presents a notable challenge, but the Beavers stood up to the task last week against Cal with running back Jadyn Ott. Like last week, I don't expect Valladay to be an issue for the Beavers' whose defense is allowing just 107.1 rushing yards per contest. Likely going at quarterback is junior Trenton Bourguet who left last week's game against Washington State with an injury but appears to be ready to go for Saturday. He's completed 71.5% of his passes this season for 992 yards and eight touchdowns to go along with four interceptions. Against UCLA and Colorado, he threw for 349 and 435 respectively as well, showing off a strong and accurate arm.

Bourguet if healthy, will be a formidable challenge for the Beavers' defense. That being said, if they can in fact force Arizona State to go one-dimensional, I like their chances to not get burned by the Sun Devils' passing offense at a high enough rate to lose this game. Will Bourguet pick up his fair share of yards? Most likely but as long as the Beavers can limit the explosive plays and big play opportunities, as they've done so well this season, I like the overall matchup. If Bourguet can't go it will be Florida quarterback transfer Emory Jones has been solid this season in terms of completion percentages but hasn't been lighting up the box score either. He's passed for just over 1,500 yards this season and seven touchdowns while throwing four interceptions.

We all know about Oregon State's offense, they won't do anything too flashy or special most of the time but overall is a strong, well-rounded offense. If this gets into a shootout, I'm not sure I like the Beavers' chances as I'm not sure they'll passing game would be able to go toe-to-toe with Arizona State's for all four quarters. That being said, if they can dictate the game on the ground and run the ball successfully throughout the game, I like their chances. The Sun Devils' defense struggles in stopping the run as we've seen in the past and I'm not sure they'll be able to slow down the Beavers enough on the ground to win this game.

- Dylan Callaghan-Croley

Dylan's season record (9-1)

T.J. MATHEWSON'S PICK

PREDICTION: Oregon State 31, Arizona State 21

I'm quite jealous the Beavers get to go down to my alma mater and soak in the sun for a rare day game in Tempe. While the team is going to enjoy the weather, they won't like the history of the program playing down in the valley of the sun. Since 1972, the Beavers have played in Tempe 20 times, and are 1-19. However, the one and only time the Beavers were favored in that matchup (2009), they won.

The Beavers are favored by 7.5 on Saturday, so that's a good start. I'm not sure what to make of this ASU team, they lost a number of starters to the transfer portal in the offseason with the impending NCAA investigation and coaching churn lingering overhead, yet there is still talent littered around the roster.

RB Xazavian Valladay has been one of the best running backs in the Pac-12 and has scored in 9/10 games this season, Elijhah Badger and Jalin Conyers are both former blue-chip recruits and are two of the better athletes in the conference. It'll be intriguing to watch how the Oregon State defense will handle this group on the road. Will they get to the level of focus and execution they say is the key to winning on the road?

Last time we saw this group on the road, we watched Michael Penix convert big third down after big third down to snatch victory away from the Beavers. Oregon State would be playing with fire if that's the level of focus they bring.

On the other side of the ball, I'm not sure what version of Ben Gulbranson we'll see, but I know Damien Martinez should feast against an ASU defense that allowed 406 rushing yards to UCLA without Zach Charbonnet two weeks ago.

I predicted 200+ multiple times, but I would be shocked if Martinez didn't crack 150 yards rushing on the ground. It doesn't help a slew of Beavers are injured, easily the least healthy Oregon State has been for a game this season. Alas, Vegas favors the Beavers.