BeaversEdge Staff Predictions: California vs Oregon State

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Every Friday of each game week, the BeaversEdge.com staff will give its predictions for Oregon State's matchup.

With the Beavers (6-3 3-3 Pac-12) set to host California (3-6, 1-5) on Saturday, BeaversEdge Publisher Brenden Slaughter, recruiting analyst Dylan Callaghan-Croley, and writer T.J. Mathewson give their two cents on the matchup and who's going to come out on top!

MORE: Injury Report vs Cal | Starters as Recruits: Cal vs OSU | EDGE POD: Talkin' QB Play & Previewing Cal | OSU Offers 2023 ATH Sam Dunnell | How OSU Commits Fared This Past Weekend

PREDICTION: Oregon State 31, Cal 17

Oregon State is in a prime position to bounce back and get a much-needed win against a very beatable Cal Bears squad...

While the Bears are coming into Reser with a little momentum after giving USC a late scare on the road a week ago, the Beavers play a whole lot better at Reser Stadium and should be in a good spot to get the win if they execute like they're capable.

Offensively, this seems like an ideal time for OSU's quarterback play to have themselves a day as the Bears bring the worst-ranked passing defense (299.8 yards per game allowed) in the conference to Reser Stadium.

Ben Gulbranson managed just 87 yards passing a week ago against the Washington Huskies, that number is going to have to be much bigger for the Beavers to have the offensive balance needed to win this matchup comfortably. OSU can win this matchup with a so-so passing game, but making some plays through the air and not 100% relying on the ground game would be an encouraging development...

We saw Gulbranson have workmanlike performances against Washington State and Colorado the last two times the Beavers were at home, and he needs to build upon that and have his best game throwing the football to instill some confidence in the passing attack heading into these final games...

If the passing game can find life it'll open up so many more running lanes for the likes of Damien Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick, and Jam Griffin, making OSU's ground attack even more difficult to stop.

Defensively, if OSU can keep tabs on dynamic Cal freshman running back Jaydon Ott and create some pressure on Jack Plummer, I like their chances to keep the Bears' scoring relatively low... Given that the OSU defense is quite familiar with Plummer, and had a rough showing against these Bears a year ago, I expect OSU's defense to be ready to shine in this one...

I see the Beavers taking this one by a pair of touchdowns and getting win No. 7 in the process...

Brenden's season record (7-2)

- Brenden Slaughter

MORE: WATCH: MBB Interviews | WATCH: Defense Meets The Media | A Closer Look At Cal | Oregon State Offense Meets The Media

PREDICTION: Oregon State 34, Cal 20

I previously called the secondary a weakness which wasn't the right word. I've edited my response below.

I like the Beavers to pick up the victory on Saturday evening. This Cal team I'm a bit surprised has been as bad as they've been this year. Their offense isn't terrible but the defense which was a big part of their success in years past has been abysmal this year.

While the Beavers may not always be the most efficient offense and have their struggles, I don't see the Bears being able to slow down the Beavers consistently enough to win this game.

The matchup that may ultimately decide this game is Cal's passing offense against the Beavers' pass defense. Cal has been great through the air this year, averaging 277 yards per game, the Beavers' have been more through the air this season than they have on the ground both on the surface and also looking a little deeper. I think they'll be able to handle Cal's rushing attack soundly but Jack Plummer is no slouch at quarterback either.

They're allowing 238.1 yards per game this year which ranks 81st in the country this season but a lot of that comes from opposing offenses throwing it heavily at times this season and not necessarily poor play. Against better passing attacks this season, they've allowed 360, 345, and 298 yards this season. That being said, against USC this season, they kept Caleb Williams and the Trojans to just 180 passing yards. It will be intriguing to see which pass defense shows up on Saturday.

The one thing the Beavers do well is when a pass is completed, they do a great of keeping the receiver in front of them and not allowing explosive plays. If they can do that, they'll be in a great position to shut down this Cal offense. However, if they give Cal wide receivers too much room, Jack Plummer is a good enough quarterback to take advantage of the opportunities presented to him.

When it comes to running back Jadyn Ott on Cal, I don't expect him to be much of a threat on the ground. The Beavers have done well in stopping the rushing attack all season and behind this Cal offensive line, Ott is averaging 5.5 yards per carry but as a whole, the Bears' offensive line is paving the way for just 3.7 yards per carry. Unless Ott breaks off a couple of long runs, I don't see him getting near that 5.5 ypc against the Beavers. If you eliminate the rushing attack, which I expect the Beavers to mostly due, and force Cal into a one-dimensional offense, the Beavers will be in a great spot to win this game. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Jack Plummer was able to have some success in passing the ball. He's quite an underrated quarterback in large part from being on a poor Bears team.

On the other side of the ball, while I don't expect the Oregon State offense to completely dominate, they should be able to find enough explosive plays both through the air and on the ground to get the job done.

- Dylan Callaghan-Croley

Dylan's season record (8-1)

PREDICTION: Oregon State 35, Cal 14

I like the Beavers' chances Saturday as they return home to face a struggling California team that has lost its last five in a row. We don't know exactly who will start at quarterback for Oregon State, and right to be skeptical after the Beavers struggles on the road against Washington.

Thankfully for Ben Gulbranson, the weather for Saturday calls for light winds, sun, and little-to-no rain, which should make for considerably better-throwing conditions than he faced a week prior. The redshirt freshman faces a pass defense in Cal that gives up nearly 300 yards a game.... good for 128th nationally.

Caleb Williams carved them up for 360 last week, Bo Nix 412 the week prior, and Michael Penix 374 the week before that. That should give young Ben a feeling of confidence he can move the ball through the air. Expect Damien Martinez to continue to be featured as the lead back, and with a more balanced passing attack, find more consistent room to gash the Cal defense on the ground throughout the game.

Flip to the other side of this game, the Oregon State defense comes off one of its most disappointing performances and has a chance at revenge against a quarterback in Jack Plummer who shredded them through the air in the 2021 opener. Plummer (16 TD, 6 INT, 62%) crossed the 400-yard mark last week for the first time this season, and for the first time in the Justin Wilcox era to boot, but faces the best secondary he has seen this year on Saturday and drops back behind a struggling offensive line that has allowed 28 sacks this season.

Jadyn Ott is a do-it-all back that will have the full attention of the OSU defense, the freshman led the Golden Bears in rushing and receptions against USC, though his production dropped off a cliff following his 274-yard breakout performance vs Arizona, only rushing for more than 60 yards in the five games since.

The Beavers play exceptionally well at home and I expect them to continue that as a two-touchdown favorite.

T.J.'s season record (9-0)

- T.J. Mathewson

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