Oregon State Football Opponent Preview: San Diego State
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With the start of the 2023 season just around the corner, BeaversEdge kicks off the first in an opponent preview series diving into all 12 of Oregon State's opponents in 2023...
Up next is the Beavers' second home game of the season, a matchup with San Diego State...
MORE: PFF Preseason Teams | Four-Star DE Talks Oregon State | Pac-12 Media All-Conference Teams | Inside The Dam: Early Look At 2025 Offense | Analysis: What Are The Beavers Getting In OL Rustin Young?
THE GAME
Date: Saturday, September 16th
Time: 12:30 p.m. PT
Location: Reser Stadium - Corvallis, Ore.
TV: FS1
Oregon State 2022 record: 10-3 (6-3 Pac-12)
San Diego State 2022 record: 7-6 (5-3 Mountain West)
Did you know? Oregon State leads the all-time series against the Aztecs 3-2, with the Beavers winning the last three games of the series. The most recent matchup in Corvallis in 2014, Mike Riley's last season in Corvallis... The Beavers, led by Sean Mannion at QB, defeated SDSU 28-7. The Beavers also won matchups in 2013 and 2000 while falling to the Aztecs in 1975 and 1972...
SDSU 2022 RECAP
After going 12-2 and coming up just one game shy of the Mountain West Championship in 2021, San Diego State regressed slightly in 2022, going 7-6 overall with a 5-3 mark in conference play.
It was head coach Brady Hoke's third season with San Diego State and Hoke now has a 36-24 overall mark with the Aztecs, including 23-15 in MW play...
The Aztecs, who have found success against Pac-12 opponents in nonconference in recent seasons, fell to Arizona in week one and were blown out by Utah in week three.
SDSU also fell to Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Middle Tennessee State in its bowl game.
Wins for the Aztecs came against Idaho State, Toledo, Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, San Jose State, and New Mexico. Toldeo was the best win of the bunch as the Rockets finished with eight wins, while only San Jose State was the only other team with a winning record SDSU beat.
The 2022 season was certainly a step back for SDSU, but Hoke has proven capable of fielding a competitive and physical team in San Diego, and they're always going to be a tougher-than-average group of five opponents because of how well they get up for Pac-12 schools...
Best Win: vs Toledo 17-14
Worst Loss: vs Arizona 38-20
SDSU 2023 Outlook
Heading into the 2023 campaign, it's reasonable to expect San Diego State to have a very similar finish to last season.
In terms of the good, getting quarterback Jalen Mayden back for his senior year will help with offensive cohesion after tallying 2,030 passing yards 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on a 60% competition rate. He loses his top targets Tyrell Shavers and Jesse Matthews, who combined for over 1000 yards receiving and six touchdowns but returns 300-yard receiver Mekhi Shaw.
In the backfield, Jaylon Armstead will be the lead back after tallying 313 yards and a score in '21. Kenan Christon will also provide key backfield depth after 261 rushing yards last season.
Additionally, Mayden is a threat running the ball with 69 attempts for 231 yards and three touchdowns...
On the flip side, the Aztecs lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball as they graduated five of their top six tacklers from a season ago in LB Michael Shawcroft, S Patrick McMorris, DL Jonah Tavai, S Cedarious Barfield, LB Seyddrick Lakalaka, and LB Cade McDonald.
All five played every game last season and everyone on the list had at least 43 tackles, indicating the production the Aztecs will be looking to replace. Additionally, SDSU lost all three of its double-digit tackle for loss leaders, and their top-four sack leaders, so there will be a ton of new faces on this Aztec defense.
Key Returnees: QB Jalen Mayden, RB Jaylon Armstead, WR Mekhi Shaw - S Davaughn Celestine, LB Cody Moon, LB Cooper McDonald - CB Dejzohn Malone
Season Projection: 6-6
Early Prediction
Oregon State 38, San Diego State 17
-> At this point in the preseason outlook, we expect Oregon State to be sitting 2-0 entering the San Diego State game with wins over San Jose State and UC Davis in the first two weeks.
Depending on how you evaluate SJSU vs SDSU entering this season, this matchup against the Aztecs could be the "toughest" non-conference game of the season for the Beavers.
Now, with that being said, you could argue opening on the road vs the Spartans is the tougher matchup, but I think SDSU will be slightly better this season.
Regardless, after likely taking down the Spartans and Aggies in weeks one and two, this should be another matchup where the Beavers are favored in a big way and don't have much trouble.
As mentioned above, SDSU always seems to give Pac-12 teams fits in the nonconference, (see win vs Utah in 2021), but given that they weren't close to taking down Arizona or Utah in the non-league last season gives many indications they likely won't have enough in the tank to come into a place like Corvallis and win.
Let's not forget Oregon State boasts a 11-1 record at Reser Stadium the past two seasons and I imagine by week three the Beavers will have most of the early-season kinks worked out...
Look for the Beavers to roll against an undermanned Aztec squad... I like the Beavers by three scores...
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