Corvallis Super Regional Preview: Vandy vs Oregon State

After breezing through the Corvallis Regional with relative ease, the Oregon State baseball team is preparing for a much tougher challenge this weekend as they welcome perennial SEC powerhouse Vanderbilt to Goss Stadium.

PROMO: Get BeaversEdge.com access FREE for 30 days! Click here to learn more

BeaversEdge Q&A with Wayne Tinkle

Tago talks new offer from Oregon State

Heath recaps Oregon State visit

5 reasons why OSU will advance to Omaha

OSU advances to Super Regionals

***

Vanderbilt's Record: 36-23-1 overall, (15-13-1 6th in SEC), 10-10 (road)

RPI: 25

How they got here: Vanderbilt finished 6th in the SEC, received an at-large bid, and was tabbed as the No. 2 seed in the Clemson regional. The Commodores defeated No. 3 seed St. John's and No. 1 seed Clemson twice to advance to the Corvallis Super Regional.

Lot’s of miles and long days: Vanderbilt was one of the many teams in college baseball that was victim of rain delays over the weekend, and didn’t finish wrap up their Super Regional berth until very late Monday night in Clemson. The Commodores had to pack up their bags and head to Corvallis from Clemson which is a 2,726 mile journey. They most likely stopped in Nashville along the way for a day or so, but that’s a lot of travel in very few days, and fatigue for the Commodores is something to keep an eye on.

Rain, Rain, Go Away? According to many weather sites, Corvallis is slated to get scattered thunderstorms on Friday night and steady rain on Saturday. The forecast is still a couple of days out, but things could get dicey and complicated in Corvallis if one or two games are delayed because of wet weather. However, OSU has the advantage of having almost an entire turf field, and can play through moderate rain from time to time.

Did you know? This is the second time that the Beavers and Commodores have met up in the Super Regional round. The first time was back in 2011 when the Beavers featured two future MLB arms in Sam Gaviglio (Seattle) and Josh Osich (San Francisco). However, the Beavers were severely outmatched offensively as all but two of Vanderbilt's starting hitters hit .300 or better. Long story short, the Beavers got a case of blues in their visit to Nashville. Vanderbilt won 11-1 and 9-3 in two games to advance to the school's first CWS appearance.

Stats to watch:

.283 batting average (5th in SEC)

.425 slugging percentage (5th)

.377 on base percentage (3rd)

586 hits (5th)

373 RBI’s (4th)

50 HR (7th)

3.54 ERA (3rd)

.221 opp batting average (1st)

442 hits allowed (1st)

216 walks allowed (7th)

56 wild pitches (4th)

PROMO: Get BeaversEdge.com access FREE for 30 days! Click here to learn more

Spin-> Based on what I’ve seen here, I’m shocked that Vanderbilt finished 6th in the SEC. They rank near the top in most offensive categories, and they boast some of the best pitching stats in the SEC as well. The are No. 1 in the SEC in opponent batting average (.221) and that shows just how impressive their pitching staff is. If there is one weakness that the Commodores have, it’s their large number of walks allowed. They ranked 7th in the conference in free passes, and we’ve seen in the past that OSU will take advantage of every runner on base. Bottom line there is no way to disguise these stats. Vanderbilt plays in the best conference in college baseball, and they are near the top in the most important categories. If there is a weakness for this team, it’s that they have played .500 baseball on the road, and haven’t played very many games out of their time zone. If OSU is going to win this series they are going to have to play their best baseball of the season and get solid contact off of Vanderbilt’s pitching staff.

Kyle Wright 6’4 220 JR RHP: 2.98 ERA, 5-5 W-L, 1 CG, 96.2 IP, 113 SO, 23 BB, .210 opp BA.

Projected No. 1 overall pick by Baseball America, Bleacher Report, D1Baseball.com, and ESPN.

Based on what I’ve already told you, one can imagine the MLB type of potential that Kyle Wright boasts for the Commodores. However, his stats don’t tell the whole story in my opinion. He reminds me of Oregon ace David Peterson in a lot of ways. Wright is a strikeout dominant pitcher that is really on when he is on, and really off when he is off. His 5-5 record, and 2.98 ERA aren’t super impressive to me, and I see him as a strikeout based pitcher. Sometimes those strikeout based pitchers are so concerned with getting strikeouts that other aspects of their game suffer. However, there is no doubting his MLB potential and unless an injury occurs; he will be the No. 1 pick in the draft next week.

Will Toffey 6’2 205 JR 3B: .350 avg, .594 slg % 69 H, 13 2B, 11 HR, 62 RBI

Toffey is Vanderbilt’s do it all guy. He has been on a tear as of late and is one of the top offensive players in the country. The Beavers could be trouble if he continues to the hit the way he’s been hitting, as he is as clutch as any player in the country. Of all his stats, the 62 RBI’s are the most impressive. By comparison, Trevor Larnach leads OSU with 39 RBI. If I’m Pat Casey and Co. I am pitching very carefully to Toffey based on his ability to change the game with one swing. Toffey is expected to be taken in the first few rounds of next week’s MLB draft and will be a tough out for the Beavers this weekend.

Luke Heimlich vs Kyle Wright

Calling all MLB scouts! Calling all MLB scouts! This is perhaps the best two pitchers in the country pitching this weekend. Goss Stadium will be packed with them on Friday or Saturday when these two pitch. It is unclear whether or not they will pitch against each other. Wright has been their Saturday guy recently, but Vanderbilt head coach Tim Corbin said the rotation is unclear for the weekend, so I wouldn't rule anything out. Wright is the de-facto No. 1 pick in the MLB draft next week, and Yale head coach John Stupar called Heimlich the best college pitcher he has ever seen. Both of these guys have their strengths - Wright’s being his ability to strike out batters, while Heimlich thrives on getting wins and allowing hardly any ER.

4.5: Vanderbilt is perhaps the toughest team the Beavers have played all season. The Pac-12 was relatively weak this season, with Stanford being the only other host school. Arizona, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington and Oregon were all down this season, and the Beavers haven’t played a team of this caliber all season. At the time when they played OSU, Stanford really hadn’t put all the pieces together yet and weren’t playing their best baseball of the season. However, just because Vanderbilt is the best team OSU has played this season, doesn’t mean that they won’t be able to beat them. It’s like Pat Casey said after winning the Corvallis Regional:

“We are going to have to be better next week. There is a real club coming next week, in Vanderbilt. We are going to have to be better, that’s all there is to it. Thoroughbreds get to Omaha.”

This is a very hard prediction to make because of the talent of both teams, but I am picking Oregon State to win the series and advance to the next round. However, I do believe that OSU will lose the first game at the hands of future superstar Kyle Wright. Once Wright is out of the way, the Beavers will respond by winning two straight to advance to Omaha.

Game one: Vanderbilt 4 - OSU 1

Game two: OSU 5 - Vanderbilt 2

Game three: OSU 6 - Vanderbilt 4