BeaversEdge Staff Predictions: Oregon State vs Florida

Every Friday of each game week, the BeaversEdge.com staff will give its predictions for Oregon State's matchup.

With the 14th-ranked Beavers (9-3 6-3 Pac-12) set to face Florida (6-6, 3-5 SEC) on Saturday, BeaversEdge Publisher Brenden Slaughter, recruiting analyst Dylan Callaghan-Croley, and writer T.J. Mathewson give their two cents on the matchup and who's going to come out on top!

MORE: WATCH: OSU At The Fremont Experience | Inside The Dam: What We Know Ahead Of NSD | A Closer Look At Florida | EDGE POD: Previewing OSU vs Florida | Photo Gallery: Beavers Meet The Media

PREDICTION: Oregon State 35, Florida 21

A 10-win campaign is within Oregon State's grasp and the Beavers will get it done against the Gators...

While Florida is a bit of a sneaky opponent due to their Jekyll/Hyde nature of wins and losses this season, the Beavers enter the Las Vegas Bowl as the more cohesive unit and should be able to ride their superior experience and playmaking to the programs' first bowl win since 2013...

Florida is missing nearly 30% of scholarship production because of the transfer portal/opt-outs and that's a mismatch the Beavers will have to take advantage of...

With the Gators breaking in a new quarterback in Jack Miller II, an opportunity presents itself for the Oregon State defense. Look for defensive coordinator Trent Bray to dial up a good amount of pressure and look to make Miller II pay for his inexperience at the collegiate level.

The Gators boast a strong ground game with a pair of dynamic running backs, but the Beavers have one of the top running defenses in the country (114 per game) and should be able to at least neutralize that matchup, if not have the advantage.

Offensively, the Beavers need to ride Damien Martinez and the ground game in a big way, opening up the play-action passing game for Ben Gulbranson. The Beavers' ground game is the bread and butter of who OSU is, so there's an expectation that Florida will do as much as they can to force the Beavers to throw.

That's where the Gulbranson will have to step up and make plays in the passing game...

OSU has proven capable of winning games one-dimensionally this season, and very well could succeed against the Gators the same way, but for the Beavers to be at their best offensively they need to hit plays in the passing game.

If OSU is able to establish its ground game and have Gulbranson show a groove in the passing game, the Beavers could win this matchup by a couple of scores. If Florida is able to make the Beavers one-dimensional, it might be more neck and neck...

This should be a dandy of a matchup, but I like Oregon State to win by a pair of scores and hoist the Las Vegas Bowl Trophy on Saturday afternoon...

Brenden's season record (10-2)

- Brenden Slaughter

PREDICTION: Oregon State 34, Florida 17

Time to go 13-0...

The Beavers face a short-handed Florida team down at Allegiant Stadium for the first time in program history. Florida is estimated to be without up to 30% of their scholarship players due to the NFL Draft, dismissal, or the transfer portal. Oregon State is better off in that department, only missing Luke Musgrave, Rejzohn Wright, and Chance Nolan. Oregon State is 2-11-1 against the SEC all-time, Florida is 8-4-1 against the Pac-12 all-time.

Now the matchup: as Brenden and I discussed in the podcast, I don't think you can overlook the remaining talent on the Florida roster. As much as coaching matters, many of the players on Florida's roster would be top-tier recruits in Oregon State history. So even if the Beavers are better coached, more disciplined, and more complete, the talent that Florida boasts will close the gap on whatever edge the Beavers have.

Florida will start a former 4-star recruit Jack Miller at QB, and have a strong running game to lean on with Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, Florida's two leading rushers, both expected to play and lead a rushing attack that ranks 5th nationally in yards per carry (5.6). That helps the young quarterback who hasn't taken a live snap in 2022 and a passing game that has been hit or miss with Anthony Richardson under center.

The thing that fascinates me is Richardson was not accurate as a passer (54%), but was a phenomenal runner (654 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns). Miller is supposed to be a little bit better in the pocket, but not as dynamic on the outside. How will the offense's style change from the season norm? That's what I want to see and what Oregon State will have to figure out. I still like the Oregon State defense on this side of the ball.

How will the Beavers act on offense? Last time we saw this group, they didn't throw the ball a single time over the course of nearly two quarters to storm back from 31-10 down.

If I were to guess, Ben will be allowed to throw the ball today with this being his last chance to impress on field before a potential transfer QB comes in. Gulbranson and Beavers have to love the matchup of their offense against a horrid Florida run defense (4.7 YPC) and pass defense (7.9 YPP).

Florida allowed 31 points to Vanderbilt a month ago. Vanderbilt! Then got carved up to finish the year (45-38 L) by Florida State. I think Damien Martinez is going to feast on this Florida defense, who I'm not certain cares about being there as much as Oregon State does.

Perfect record on the line, and in tune with the bowl game, I'll go with Vegas and Oregon State (-10.5).

T.J.'s season record (12-0)

- T.J. Mathewson

Give me Oregon State here big...

I think the Beavers want to be in this game way more than Florida does and even though OSU doesn't have a superb quarterback situation, it’s definetly better than Florida’s.

I believe the Beavers' defense will shut down this rather lackluster Gators offense without quarterback Anthony Richardson (opt-out), and offensively, OSU will take advantage of some short-field opportunities and what should be a tired Florida defense as the game progresses.

I like the Beavers by a pair of scores...

PREDICTION: Oregon State 38, Florida 24

- Dylan Callaghan-Croley

Dylan's season record (11-1)

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