11/11/2022 football Edit

BeaversEdge Film Analysis: QB Aidan Chiles

Dylan Callaghan-Croley • BeaversEdge

Recruiting Analyst

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With Early National Signing Day not too far away, it's a good time to get a head start in breaking down the film of Oregon State's 2023 commitments. Today, we'll start with who I believe is the crown jewel of the recruiting class, quarterback Aidan Chiles.

The 2023 dual-threat quarterback out of Downey (CA) is in the midst of a superb senior season after battling injury and being a backup quarterback over the first three years of his prep career. Now with a chance to be a healthy, full-time starter, Chiles is showing that he has all the traits and talent to be a Power Five starting quarterback and one that has flown under the radar.

Senior stats (through 11 games): 150-for-200, 2,462 yards, 28 touchdowns, 3 interceptions; 45 carries, 625 yards, 7 TD - Total yards and touchdowns: 3,087 yards and 35 touchdowns

Size: At 6-foot-4, 195-pounds, Chiles is well on his way to having great size. I think being able to get to the 215-220 pound range may be most beneficial for him long term, even if that means losing some of his speed. But even if he goes on to play at the 6-foot-4 and 210-pound area, size won't be an issue. At this point, it's all about adding muscle, especially in his upper body to allow him to take the beating that comes with being a Power Five dual-threat quarterback. All in all, by the time he fully develops physically, Chiles will be around the prototypical size for a quarterback.

Arm Talent:

Having the ability to be a dual-threat quarterback is great especially at the college level, having a quarterback who can make plays on the ground as well as with his arm makes your offense that much better. You look around the country, and most of the top programs in the country have quarterbacks who can do both. You don't have to be a true dual-threat quarterback but there are not many true pro-style quarterbacks either. That being said, very few quarterbacks truly can throw the ball at a high level as well as running the ball at a high level.

I think Chiles has a chance to be one of those players.

A quick look at his tape and you see that arm talent is pretty special. His motion is rather smooth but most importantly rather effortless. Even on deeper passes, his windup and motion are not overly long, it stays rather quick and compact. That's only going to help him as he makes the jump to the collegiate level.

The touch he has on his passes is impressive, no matter if it's on the move or perfectly still in the pocket, he shows the ability to put the ball right where it needs to be. He also shows a great understanding of when he needs to put a little bit more juice behind a ball and when he doesn't. For young quarterbacks, it's easy to feel the need to have to throw every ball as hard as you can, and can be a tough habit to break. There won't be any worries of having to break that habit with Chiles.

While HUDL tapes are really just highlight tapes and don't show you everything, very few of the passes in his senior mid-season highlights do you look at and believe had a chance to be intercepted. There were certainly some dangerous throws but his pinpoint accuracy really makes you feel better about some of those throws. He won't always get away with them at the next level but those are growing pains that can be worked on throughout his development.

His pinpoint accuracy has a lot to do with his footwork, a glance at his tape above and you can see that he rarely has poor footwork, his shoulders and hips are consistently synced, if he has time, he sets his feet quickly, and then consistently throws strikes. Rarely do you see poor footwork out of him. If Chiles's dual-threat capabilities weren't there, I think he would be just fine as a pocket passer. There are of course things to work on, but overall, the foundation is there for him to be a great pocket passer at the next level.

Additionally, he shows great anticipation and awareness. When it comes to his awareness, it's both in leading his wide receiver also his pocket presence. He shows a strong internal clock and can feel backside pressure coming, if he finds a target to throw to, he gets the ball out quickly and accurately. If he needs to extend the play, he can do that. Whether if it's on a timing route and having to anticipate where his receiver will be or having to lead his receiver, his awareness and accuracy once again is tremendous.

For a young quarterback whose just 17 and won't turn 18 until the start of his freshman year in Corvallis, there's a lot to love about where he is in his development as a passer.

Mobility - Mobility isn't going to be an issue for the California native. While we don't have an exact 40-yard dash time available for Chiles, we would estimate he's somewhere between a 4.5 and 4.6. Not only does he have speed but he shows great vision when running the ball and elusiveness. He's got fluid hips and quick feet that can make the smallest mismove by a defender resulting in an explosive play. It seems no matter if it's a designed run or him evading pressure, he always has full control of his body which is by far one of the most important traits any ball carrier can have.

Again, his awareness at only 17 is phenomenal. No matter where a quarterback's physical traits are at 17, if he has the awareness and football IQ that Downey clearly shows, you'll take your chances on them every single time.

Intangibles:

We've talked about them quite a bit already but for a young quarterback, it's really impressive of where Chiles is as a quarterback. He doesn't get flustered if a play breaks down and usually stays within himself and doesn't try to make too big of a play. His awareness and football IQ are among the best in the class in my opinion which is only more impressive considering he's among the youngest in the class, if not the youngest. He shows the ability to diagnose coverages, and understand where his opportunities will be pre-snap so once the ball is snapped, he has a good feeling of where he's going to be throwing the ball. If his first read isn't open, he goes through his progressions quickly while staying aware of any defenders that may be coming off the edge or may be sitting in a pocket hoping for a poor read or pass.

Notably, as well, he showed this season that no moment is too big for him. Against Warren (CA) this season which is the home of five-star quarterback and Tennessee commitment Nico Iamaleave, Chiles had a very impressive performance. He completed 18-of-29 passing attempts for 195 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 131 rushing yards over eight carries on the ground while picking up another touchdown. He went toe-to-toe with Iamaleave who completed just 8-of-16 passing attempts in the game albeit for 260 yards and four touchdowns but benefited greatly from two plays that totaled 150 yards. Chiles was the much more consistent and efficient quarterback in that game. You can see highlights from that game below.

College Career Projection:

Projecting players is never easy and it's not a science. It's simply what it is, it's a projection based on what we believe the player is currently and where they could be down the road. If we projected 100 players, we may be able to get 50-60 projections right. That being said, on each of these film analyses as we move towards early national signing day, I'll provide what I believe a player's floor is and what a player's ceiling could be with the Beavers.

Most of these projections will land within the following;

All-conference: These projections will be players who I believe could be among the best players in the conference at some point in their careers. I don't want to go to far in projections such as All-American or such but one would assume that any all-conference player will have an argument to be up for All-America and national awards.

Multi-year/High-level starter: Multi-year / high-level starters are players that you could probably tell, I project to be either a multi-year starter or someone who can be a consistent playmaker for the Beavers but may not be on that all-conference level. These are players that will produce for the Beavers consistently once they see the field.

Borderline to average starter: These are players I believe can be productive players for the Beavers but may not necessarily be your go-to playmakers. They'll have quality careers but they may take two or three years before becoming a starter for the Beavers.

Rotational: These will be prospects that I believe may be solid overall players at the next level but may just not have the skill set to become a starter at the next level. These players will still see quite a bit of playing time as their careers develop.

Depth: This one is pretty sweet and simple - these are players that at the end of the day may play here or there but won't be a player that sees consistent playing time in their career.

Aidan Chiles career projections:

Ceiling: All-conference -I won't be throwing around the all-conference tag often but I truly believe that at one point or another in his career, perhaps for multiple years, Chiles could be one of the top quarterbacks in the Pac-12 fighting for an All-Conference spot or honorable mention. He simply has all the tools and intangibles to be that type of quarterback.

Floor: Borderline to average starter - I think Chiles' floor may be a bit closer to a multi-year starter but I'll go with the borderline starter as his floor. While his accuracy may dip at the next level to a degree, I don't expect him to suffer any sort of massive drop-off in that department. His ability to be accurate, combined with his ability to take off and run still should allow him to be a serviceable quarterback who you can trust to keep you in games and win you games. If he reaches his ceiling, he's the type of quarterback that the whole team can jump on his shoulders and he can carry them to victory. If he hits this floor, he's still going to be a quality quarterback, he just may not necessarily be able to carry the Beavers to victory week after week.