Oregon State Hoops 3-2-1: What we learned during non-conference play
The Oregon State Men's Basketball team has wrapped up non-conference play with their 79-78 road loss at Kent State, and the Beavers host Colorado to open Pac-12 play on December 29.
In the article below, BeaversEdge.com dissects three things we learned during non-conference play, two questions we have, and gives one prediction.
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Three things we learned
1. The Beavers didn’t play a tough non-conference schedule. It became apparent as time went on that OSU didn’t exactly schedule home-run hitters when it came to non-conference opponents. Prior to the Kent State game, OSU’s strength of schedule was 249 and it only slightly went up after the game. Bottom line, the Beavers didn’t play anyone of real value when it came right down to the point.
Yes, the Beavers had good tests along the way in St. Johns and Jacksonville State, but playing teams like Arkansas Pine-Bluff and Kent State along the way weren’t exactly great RPI teams to play in the first place. With a non-conference schedule like this, you would have expected the Beavers to realistically go 11-1 or 10-2. Even with a cupcake schedule, you’d expect a slip up or two here and there, but going 8-4 against this competition completely hurts OSU’s chances of making the postseason.
Luckily for the Beavers, it doesn’t appear that the conference is top-to-bottom strong like it has been for the last several years, so it might not burn OSU. Moving forward in years to come, the Beavers need to make a point to play more marquee teams to improve the teams development and their RPI.
2. OSU’s team is wildly inconsistent. This is one that really frustrates fans and coaches alike as it’s one of the hardest things to correct. At times, like during the first half of the St. John’s game, OSU played near flawlessly and looked like a potential postseason team. However, the inconsistency reared its head in the last 5 minutes of that game, as the Beavers turned the ball over and looked lost as they let St. Johns come back and escape with the win.
My point in all of this is that OSU hasn’t played with any sort of consistency all season. Just when you think they’ve turned the corner, they take two steps back. Unfortunately for OSU, they weren’t able to cut out their inconsistency against a bad non-conference slate of opponents. In order for the Beavers to have a chance at making the NIT or NCAA Tournament, they will have to shore up this issue, among others.
3. The Beavers still can’t get a full 40 minute effort. Finally we arrive at the specific core of OSU’s losses this season, and it’s because they can’t get a full 40 minute effort on the court. Sadly, it reminds me a lot of what former football coach Gary Andersen used to say when he constantly said his team struggled to ever get a full four-quarter effort. It seems like a hollow excuse to me, but for once it really applies to the situation.
Whether it’s been the loss to Wyoming, St. Johns, Long Beach State, or Kent State, its always been because they Beavers can’t put a full game together. If and when the Beavers ever do get that effort they will be a competitor. If they don’t, it could be a long season for Beaver fans.
Two Questions
1. Will Tres Tinkle become the potential Pac-12 POY cantidiate we hoped he’d be? Coming into the season, everyone knew that OSU’s best all-around player was Tinkle. Before his injury last season, he led the team in points and rebounds and appeared to be OSU’s No. 1 option coming into his redshirt-sophomore campaign. And while Tinkle hasn’t had a bad season by any stretch as he’s averaging 18 points and seven rebounds, but it seems like he disappears at times. He is talented enough to completely take over the game, but goes through stretches where he isn’t involved enough in the offense. Prior to this season, I called him a darkhorse Pac-12 POY candidate, and I still believe he can get to that point, he just needs to be more consistent in games.
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2. How much will OSU’s weak non-conference schedule hurt them? As I mentioned above, the Beavers played a non-conference schedule that reminded me of the Craig Robinson days. OSU played some flat-out awful teams and struggled to defeat some of them. Granted, the Beavers had a six game winning streak during the non-conference that showed many doubters that they were improving.
However, a bad loss to Kent State to wrap up the non-conference slate really raises questions about Wayne Tinkle’s squad heading into Pac-12 play. Can OSU compete with the Pac-12 night in and night out? Will the Beavers be consistent? Can they handle a lesser team from start-to-finish? These are all questions that we thought we’d know coming into the season, and now it will be interesting to see how they are answered during the Pac-12 slate.
One Prediction
OSU sweeps Colorado and Utah at home to open Pac-12 play
Call me crazy now folks, but I believe the Beavers need and will get a little home cookin’ against the mountain schools next week. OSU gets several days off for Christmas, and I believe that they will come back refreshed and ready to go with a clean slate. While the Beavers didn’t roll through the non-conference slate we expected them to, they are still in a position to potentially win double-digit games in league play and give themselves a chance at the NIT or perhaps still the NCAA Tournament with a strong league record. I anticipate OSU going 7-11, 8-10, 9-9, or 10-8 in conference play if they take care of business at home which is what the Beavers will do next weekend.