Matchup Breakdown: Arizona Wildcats vs Oregon State Beavers
With the help of our new partners at Pro Football Focus, we provide an in-depth look at how the Wildcats and Beavers will match up on each side of the ball.
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Arizona offense vs Oregon State defense
In looking at Pro Football Focus' analytics here (you can view the grades below), the scary thing for the Beavers is just how good Arizona's pass blocking is (88.9) and how bad OSU's pass rush is (54.5). Oregon State has been abysmal getting to the quarterback this season as they simply don't have quality pass rushers. Their best defensive line pass rusher is Jeromy Reichner, but he hasn't played a snap yet this season and it doesn't seem like that will change anytime soon, unfortunately.
This is going to be a high scoring game. Both teams lack a solid pass rush. Khalil Tate's passing grade for this season is 75.1, which is slightly up from 73.1 from last season. Arizona's offensive game plan has completely changed though with Rich Rodriguez out and Kevin Sumlin in, and while it's been better for Tate as a passer, it's not better for him as a runner and overall player, according to the analytics.
In 2017, Tate had an offensive grade of 90.6, which is an incredible season grade. It's down to 73.3 this season. His rushing grade last year was 90.3 and it's down to 54.8 through three games in 2018. The analytics reflect what the eye test shows when looking at Tate and the Arizona offense.
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Understanding the grades
Elite - 99-95
High quality -- 94-90
Good -- 89-80
Above average – 79-70
Average – 69-60
Below average - 59-45
Poor – 44 and below
Being ranked in the average category is not necessarily bad. The Pro Football Focus grading scale has a very high standard. "Average" can basically be replaced with "expected."
Offensive Category | Season Grade |
---|---|
Passing |
76.7 |
Pass block |
88.9 |
Receiving |
73.0 |
Rushing |
68.6 |
Run block |
54.3 |
Overall Offensive Grade |
73.8 |
Defensive Category | Season Grade |
---|---|
Rush defense |
69.8 |
Tackling |
65.3 |
Pass rush |
54.5 |
Coverage |
64.3 |
Special teams |
65.2 |
Overall Defensive Grade |
65.7 |
AZ OFF | Season Grade | OSU DEF | Season Grade |
---|---|---|---|
WR Shawn Poindexter |
84.2 |
CB Kaleb Hayes |
74.6 |
RB Darrius Smith |
75.3 |
S Jalen Moore |
73.1 |
QB Khalil Tate |
73.3 |
OLB Kee Whetzel |
70.0 |
WR Tony Ellison |
71.6 |
DT Elu Aydon |
67.4 |
WR Shun Brown |
68.4 |
LB Doug Taumoelau |
64.1 |
Oregon State offense vs Arizona defense
Arizona has played in three games this season, and allowed 28, 45, and 31 points in those contests. That's a lot of points for a team that is actually graded pretty well defensively. PFF grades them at 75.7 this season, which is just narrowly behind Oregon State's high flying offense at 76.1, which ranks No. 24 in the nation in yards per game and No. 56 in points per game.
The Wildcats grade especially high in run defense and tackling, which could cause a problem for the Beavers as they've used their rushing attack to break off big runs through the first three weeks of the season. Oregon State has a bad run blocking grade, so if the Wildcats' run defense does show up like the analytics believe, it could be a long day for Jermar Jefferson.
Arizona is about a seven point favorite in this contest and the over/under is set at 75.5. That's a very high under, and I think it could get near that but I think the total outcome will be right around 68-72 total points. Both offenses are strong and the defenses have shown flashes of good but are mostly average.
Offensive Category | Season Grade |
---|---|
Passing |
75.8 |
Pass block |
67.4 |
Receiving |
75.2 |
Rushing offense |
75.1 |
Run block |
59.0 |
Overall Offensive Grade |
76.1 |
Defensive Category | Season Grade |
---|---|
Run defense |
83.0 |
Tackling |
84.7 |
Pass rush |
55.8 |
Coverage |
72.8 |
Special teams |
70.5 |
Overall Defensive Grade |
75.7 |
OSU OFF | Season Grade | AZ DEF | Season Grade |
---|---|---|---|
WR Isaiah Hodgins |
83.0 |
LB Colin Schooler |
76.5 |
RB Jermar Jefferson |
77.3 |
S Jarrius Wallace |
75.7 |
QB Conor Blount |
71.5 |
DL Finton Connolly |
73.7 |
QB Jake Luton |
71.4 |
S Tristan Cooper |
70.1 |
OT Blake Brandel |
70.8 |
S Isaiah Hayes |
69.4 |