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BeaversEdge Staff Predictions: Oregon State vs Washington

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Every Friday of each game week, the BeaversEdge.com staff will give its predictions for Oregon State's matchup.

With the 23rd-ranked Beavers (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12) set to face Washington (6-2, 3-2) on Friday, BeaversEdge Publisher Brenden Slaughter, recruiting analyst Dylan Callaghan-Croley, and writer T.J. Mathewson give their two cents on the matchup and who's going to come out on top!

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BRENDEN SLAUGHTER'S PICK 

PREDICTION: Oregon State 31, Washington 28

This matchup between No. 24 Oregon State and Washington is tough to predict, but I'm going with the Beavers by a field goal...

Oregon State needs a signature road win and I think they get it against the Huskies this weekend...

With weather conditions potentially not being nearly as much of a factor as the forecast predicted several days ago, the pressure will be on Trent Bray's defense to slow down Michael Penix Jr. and the high-flying UW aerial attack. If the wind/rain was more of a factor or becomes one, that could have significantly changed the dynamic of the ability to throw the ball.

However, OSU's defensive backs are some of the most experienced and talented playmakers in the conference and I believe they'll meet the challenge of playing against a big-time passing attack. Playing at a high level on the road is a different beast, but if the Beavers can limit UW's passing attack as they did against USC and Boise State, for example, that'll keep them right in this contest.

Additionally, OSU's defensive line and edge rushers are going to have to get pressure on Penix. For how good OSU's secondary is, they can't play coverage forever if Penix has all day to throw...

Offensively, this game seems like an opportunity for the Beavers to showcase a little more than we've seen in the past two contests vs WSU & Colorado. Backup Ben Gulbranson is certainly more comfortable in the offense and as a starter than he was a month ago and I'd like to see the Beavers open up the playbook a bit more and try and spark the passing attack that's been less than stellar in recent weeks...

OSU's defense has proven capable of keeping the team in games throughout the season, but the offense needs to carry some of the weight by sustaining long, time-consuming drives that keep Penix Jr. and the UW offense on the sidelines. Additionally, hanging onto the football and not turning it over is paramount to the Beavers' success...

If the Beavers can get a solid ground game with Damien Martinez, Jam Griffin, & Deshaun Fenwick going against UW's stout run defense (110 ypg allowed, 2nd in P12) and get just enough passing game production from Gulbranson and the receivers, I like their chances to steal a win up in the Emerald City...

Brenden's season record (7-1)

- Brenden Slaughter

DYLAN CALLAGHAN-CROLEY'S PICK

PREDICTION: Washington 34, Oregon State 30

Dylan's season record (7-1)

I’ve gone back and forth this week in my feelings for this game but I’m going to go with my gut and say Washington wins 34-30.

I think this game comes down to Michael Penix Jr. being the better quarterback and I’m just not quite sure I can trust the Beavers not to beat themselves with a crucial turnover at one point or another.

If the Beavers can hold onto the football and control the clock I do like their chances of winning but seeing is believing.

- Dylan Callaghan-Croley

T.J. MATHEWSON'S PICK

PREDICTION: Washington 28, Oregon State 17

Friday's clash on Montlake is one of the toughest games to pick this season. The Beavers bring Ben Gulbranson and his undefeated record as a starter (3-0) into one of the most hostile environments in the country.

The weather Friday night calls for an "atmospheric river" or whatever that means, it could be very wet, windy, etc. Advantage? Beavers and their ground game. However, some more research by yours truly yields this precipitation map, which projects only a tenth of an inch of rain in the Seattle area. Advantage, Huskies.

UW QB Michael Penix Jr. leads the nation in passing yardage and passing yardage per game, and leads an offense that converts an absurd 53% of their third downs. The Beavers boast the best secondary in the conference, but have played a clear level below their standard in road games vs Fresno State, Utah, and Stanford.

Regardless of that, the Beavers are going to need to win the game on offense, and force the Huskies to play from behind, much like they did in their two losses vs UCLA and ASU this year.

The key of course is going to be controlling possession on offense with Damien Martinez and co. but also being able to hit shots down the field, which has been the weakness of a UW offense that ranks among the worst nationally in passing efficiency defense and third down defense.

Now my prediction: I don't think the Beavers will win this game Friday. I think the quarterback mismatch is a little too much, especially if the weather ends up being drier than expected. I don't like how the Beavers have played on the road this season, two last-second wins in less hostile environments, and a blowout loss against Utah.

Lastly, I don't like the matchup of the OSU pass rush vs the UW pass blocking. The Huskies have allowed just seven sacks all year, and the Beavers have struggled generating a pass rush at times this year. If they need to send extra guys to get Penix to the ground, they very well might get burned.

Also, a majority of the big Pac-12 losses this year have been on the road. Utah at Florida, Utah at UCLA, Washington at UCLA, UCLA at Oregon, USC at Utah. Only USC at OSU was one that (unfortunately) went the other way.

T.J.'s season record (8-0)

- T.J. Mathewson

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